Sunday, December 13, 2009


List of forthcoming IPOs.

a. Fineotex Chemical Limited
b. Jaypee Infra tech Limited
c. Jaypee Estates Projects Limited
d. PNC Infra tech Limited
e. Aqua Logistics Limited
f. Everest Infra Energy Limited
g. Intrasoft Technologies Limited
h. Sterlite Energy Limited
i. Vasocn
j. Hathway cables ltd
k. Kumar urban developers ltd
l. Nitesh estates ltd
m. Lodha developers ltd
n. Tarapur Transformers Limited
o. Rural Electrification Corporation Limited

Wednesday, December 9, 2009


D B Corp, one of the leading print media house in the country, publishing 48 newspaper editions, in three languages, in eleven states and which also operates 17 FM radio stations, is entering the capital markets. The public issue consist of 1, 81, 75,000 shares of Rs 10/ each, including the offer for sale of 1, 27, 25000 shares in the price band of Rs 185 -212.

The issue will open on 11-12-09 and closes on 15-12-09. Enam Securities private limited, Citi Corp Markets India private limited and Kotak Mahindra Capital Company limited are the Book Running Lead Managers.

The flagship newspapers of DB Corp are, Dainik Bhaskar, Divya Bhaskar and Saurashtra Samachar, have a combined average daily readership of 15.5 million readers, making them one of the most widely read newspaper groups in the country. The other newspapers are Business Bhaskar, DB Gold and DB Star and, on a franchisee basis, DNA (in Gujarat and Rajasthan). In addition to newspapers, they also publish 5 periodicals, namely, Aha Zindagi, a monthly magazine published in Hindi and Gujarati, Bal Bhaskar, a Hindi magazine for children, Young Bhaskar, a children’s magazine in English and Lakshya, a career magazine in Hindi.


The objects of this Issue are to raise funds for - setting up new publishing units, upgrading existing plant and machinery, enhancing brand image through sales and marketing, reducing existing working capital loans and for prepaying existing term loans.

However, the projects for which the Net Proceeds are intended to be utilized have not been appraised by any bank or financial institution and the costs of the projects are based on the internal estimates of the Company.

07 08 09 (Rs in crores)

Total Income 674.37 862.69 960.98

Net Profit 35.90 69.77 54.81

EPS (In rupees) 3.06 6.01 4.06

The weighted average RoNW was in excess of 30% for the last three years.


Established brands in Indian print media with wide geographical reach. Average fundamentals. Based on FY 2009 EPS, in the price band of Rs 185 -212 the stock is valued around 50 times its earnings, as against the industry average of 28 times. The valuation is very much stretched. The company has no definitive business plans. The promoter group companies have history of de-listing from the Stock Exchanges. Some of the trademarks, logos and copyrights are not registered. The company is unable to disclose information in relation to certain promoter group companies. Promoters and promoter group have equity interests or investments in other entities that offer services that are related to the business of DB Corp.


D B Corp business is dependent on advertising revenue and a reduction in advertising expenditure, loss of advertising customers or inability to attract new customers could have a material adverse affect on the business. The company relies substantially on advertisements revenue. During the financial year ended March 31, 2009, the company derived 75.50% of consolidated income from advertisement income.

According to PWC report, the media growth rate to increase in 2010 to 10.4%, from of about 9% now, as economic conditions are expected to gradually improve. The industry will continue to grow at increasing rate and there will be an overall compounded annual growth rate for the period 2009-13 of 10.5 percent. The report also predicts a healthy growth in all eight segments of entertainment and media industry in next four years (2010 to 2013). These are television, filmed entertainment, print media comprising newspaper and magazine publishing, radio, emerging segments like music, animation, gaming, internet advertising.

The Indian newspaper industry is intensely competitive. In each of the markets, DB Corp faces competition from other newspapers for circulation, readership and advertising. In addition, they may face competition from other forms of media including, television broadcasters, magazines, radio broadcasters and websites. These other forms of media compete with newspapers for advertisement and for the time and attention of readers. The group may also face competition from international media companies as the Government of India has recently liberalized its foreign investment regulations and restrictions applicable to the media sector. Competition for circulation and readership has often resulted in competitors reducing the cover-prices of their newspapers. Furthermore, competition for advertising from newspapers has often resulted in competitors reducing advertising rates or offering price incentives to advertising customers. Such reduction in prices or rates or the introduction of new price incentives could have a material adverse effect on financials.

Circulation and readership of newspapers among readers is an important source of revenue as they significantly influence ad-spend by advertisers and advertising rates. Circulation and readership are dependent on, among other factors, the quality of editorial content and the preferences of readers, the reach of newspapers, and the loyalty of readers to newspapers and ability to successfully establish new locally focused newspapers in new regions. Any failure to meet readers’ preferences, quality content may affect circulation and in turn revenues.
The issue is very unattractively priced. There is nothing left for investors. AVOID SUBSCRIPTION.


The opinions expressed on this site are personal.Apply your own judgment before making investments of any kind. Thank you.

Friday, December 4, 2009


Mumbai based, leading real estate development company, who are one of the top ten builders in the country, is entering the capital markets, to raise around Rs 500 crore, with public issue of 94,29,750 equity shares of Rs 10/- each in the price band of Rs 490 -530. The issue will open on 09-12-09 and close on 12-12-09. ICICI Securities limited, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, IDFC- SSKI LIMITED and Nomura Financial Advisory Securities Pvt limited are the Book Running Lead Managers to the issue.

The company is promoted by Godrej Industries Limited, which holds around 80% of equity share capital. Godrej Industries Limited is the listed flagship company of the Godrej group, which is one of the leading business conglomerates in the country.

Godrej Group is engaged in diverse business segments, spanning Home appliances, FMCG, Consumer products, Industrial products , Oleo chemicals, Animal feed, Real estate development and Oil palm plantations.

Godrej properties limited (GPL) has real estate development projects in 10 cities in India, which are at various stages of development. Currently, the business focus is on residential, commercial and township developments. GPL is a fully integrated real estate development company involved in all activities associated with the development of residential and commercial real estate.

GPL, as of October 15, 2009, has Land Reserves of 391.04 acres aggregating approximately 82.74 million sq. ft. of Developable Area and 50.21 million sq. ft. of Saleable Area, located in or around prominent and growing cities across India, such as Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad. As on the same date the company has completed a total of 23 projects comprising 16 residential and 7 commercial projects, aggregating approximately 5.13 million sq. ft. of area for development.


The company plans to raise around Rs 500 cr, intends to use Rs 203 cr for acquisition of land development rights for forthcoming projects, Rs 75 cr for construction purposes, Rs 172 cr for repayment of loans and the rest is for general corporate purposes.


The company reported a robust income of Rs 247.38cr, 227.50cr and 137.26cr in the last three years. The profit after tax was Rs 76.62cr, 74.85cr and 28.72cr respectively for the same period. The average RoNW during the same period was around 34%.


GPL is promoted by reputed Godrej group, which has very strong brand equity. Excellent financial track record. Leaders in corporate governance. In the price band of Rs 490-530 the stock is valued at about 40 times of its earning for FY-09. ICRA has awarded grade 4 for the IPO indicating above average fundamentals. The high valuation is justified considering the strong financials, brand equity and future business prospects.


The company’s ability to successfully compete in new segments across different geographies is yet to be demonstrated. Due to general recession, proportion of un-booked space in the on-going commercial projects exposes it to market risks. Further slowdown in real estate segment may affect the demand and resultant decline in property prices. This coupled with oversupply situation in many pockets can affect the prices further, which will have cascading impact on financials.

As per CRISIL estimate, the annual additions in units are expected to grow from 70 million units in 2008 to reach 81 million units in 2014. Estimated annual additions in units in rural areas are to grow from 174 million units in 2008 from 198 million units in 2014. GPL with selective acquisition of land parcels in strategic locations, also enter into development agreements with land owners to acquire development rights to their land in exchange for a pre-determined portion of revenues, profits or developable area generated from the projects. The Godrej brand name and the reputation associated with it contribute in attracting potential joint development partners . This business model enables undertaking more projects without having to invest large amounts of money towards purchasing land. Hence, GPL is able to limit risk through project diversification while maintaining significant management control over our projects. A SURE WINNER FROM THE GODREJ STABLE. APPLY.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009


Jindal group needs no introduction in capital markets. The group has business interest in the steel, power, cement, aluminum, software, power trading and infrastructure sectors.

The power company from the JSW group is planning to raise Rs 2700 cr through IPO, in the price band of Rs 100 - 115 per share, having face value of Rs.10 per share. The issue will open on 07-12-09 and closes on 09-12-09.

JM Financial Consultants Pvt Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Capital Ltd., ICICI Securities Ltd., IDFC-SSKI Ltd., JP Morgan India Ltd., SBI Capital Markets Ltd., Morgan Stanley India Ltd. and IDBI Capital market Services ltd are the book running lead managers to the issue.

JSW Energy limited, is a part of the JSW Group, headed by Mr. Sajjan Jindal.The company currently owns and operates thermal power plants in Karnataka with an aggregate capacity of 860 MW. It also provides operation & maintenance services for power plants of group companies and project management services for the power plants being set up by the group. JSWEL is currently in the process of enhancing its power generation capacity by 2,790 MW. It is also setting up a transmission line network and developing lignite mines through joint ventures.


The funds raised are intended to be used for setting up power plants. Repayment of high cost corporate debts and for general corporate purposes.

The cost of the projects is estimated at Rs.14,048 crore and is being funded in a debt to equity ratio of 2.45:1 i.e. long-term debt of Rs.9,979.50 crore and equity of Rs.4,068.50 crore. The company has already tied up the total debt component while, funds aggregating Rs.5, 982 crore were deployed in the various projects as on June 30, 2009. State Bank of India and ICICI Banks have appraised and funded the projects.


The company had a CAGR in excess of 30%, in revenue generation, in the last three years. Consistently profit making company. Professional and experienced management. Known for good corporate governance. Strong financials. Power plant are located at diverge geographical locations. The issue has been graded by rating agency CARE as Grade 4, indicating above-average fundamentals. The company’s RoNW is at 18% as on 31-03-09. At Rs 100 -115, the issue is very attractively priced. Retail investors are offered a discount of Rs 5/.


On the successful commissioning of the projects, JSWEL would have benefit of the prevailing high merchant tariff for short term. Given the significant power supply deficit in the country and government recognizing the power sector as a key infrastructure sector to be developed to sustain Indian economic growth, prospects for
growth is favorable for companies in the power sector.

One of the established energy company. One of the early entrants in the power trading business. Currently most of the revenue is derived from power generation. The company has the potential to become an integrated power company in the Indian power sector with presence across the value chain.

The low per capita consumption of electric power in India compared to the world average presents a significant potential for sustainable growth in the demand for electric power in India. There is a very big gap between demand and supply, demand being higher. The company is in the right business at the right time. Investors are advised to apply for the issue for both short term and long term appreciation.


Monday, November 23, 2009


The Kolkatta based infrastructure development company is planning to raise around Rs 100 cr through IPO, which is slated to open on 27-11-09 and closes on 01-12-09. The company proposes to issue 57, 00,000 of equity shares of Rs 10/each in the price band of Rs 165-180. Motilal Oswal Investment advisors are the Book Running Lead Manager.

The company is promoted by R G Maheshwari and associates, was originally incorporated as Maheshwari Brothers Limited and subsequently changed its name.

The company is engaged in the construction and maintenance of roads and highways, industrial infrastructure projects, other civil engineering projects for various government bodies and other clients.

The company has a pan India presence and has executed or in the process of execution a number of projects in states of West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Karnataka.

The company has also interest in steel trading and waste management and ready mix concrete business.


The company intends to use the proceeds of the Issue for procurement of capital equipments, investments in joint ventures, for BOT projects, for working capital requirements and for meeting general corporate purposes. However, the project has not been appraised by any Bank or Financial Institution.


The company has recorded robust revenue and profitability in the last three years and has track record of dividend payment. At Rs 165 (lower end), the price earning ratio of 17 is very much on the higher side, compared to the peers of the sector which are available for less than 10 P/E. Certain criminal cases are pending against the company/ its subsidiaries/group companies and income tax (disappropriate income) appeal. Company is heavily dependent on government/government funded projects. The rating agency ICRA has awarded grade 2 indicating below average fundamentals. The premium sought is very much is on the high side, considering the above factors.


Demand for infrastructure services depends mainly on general developmental activities in the country and expenditure levels in the building and infrastructure sectors. The infrastructure services are principally dependent on sustained economic development in the regions in which the company operates. In addition, demand for infrastructure services is largely dependent on government policies relating to infrastructure development and budgetary allocations made by governments for such development, as well as funding provided by international and multilateral development financial institutions for infrastructure projects. Investment by the private sector in infrastructure projects is dependent on the potential returns from such projects, is therefore linked to government policies relating to private sector participation and the sharing of risks, and returns from such projects. A reduction of capital investment in the building or infrastructure sectors for any reason could have a material adverse effect on business, results of operations and financial condition. Instability of economic policies and the political situation in India could adversely affect the fortunes of the Industry. Investors are advised to stay away from the issue.

Sunday, November 15, 2009


One of the leading and oldest recognised service provider in the travel and tourism industry with pan India and global presence in 18 countries is planning to raise around Rs 600 crore through IPO. The company proposes to issue 1,84, 96,640-equity shares of Rs 10/ each, including offer for sale of 30, 46,640 shares in the price band of Rs 316 -330/ share. The issue is slated to open on 18-11-09 and closes on 20-11-09. India Info line limited are the Book Running Lead Manager.

The company caters to the overall travel needs of an Indian and International traveller and it is one of the India’s largest tour and travel operator, which serve as a ‘One Stop Shop’ for all travel and travel related products.

Cox & Kings business are broadly categorised as Leisure Travel, Corporate Travel, Forex and Visa Processing. They also design travel packages for both individuals and groups for their domestic and international leisure travel, as travel arrangements for corporate clients to cater to their business meetings, conferences and events. They also provide end-to-end travel solutions including land, air and cruise bookings, hotel bookings, in-transit arrangements, local sightseeing, visa, passport and medical insurance assistance. The company continuously innovates product offerings with the flexibility to meet the changing needs of the customers and to address their needs better.


The proceeds of the IPO are intended to be deployed for acquisitions, investments in overseas subsidiaries, repayment of loans and for general corporate purposes.


Taking into consideration the company’s strong brand equity, efficient management, wide range of products, geographical reach, investment in technology and financial performances, the issue can be considered very attractively priced. The rating agency CARE has assigned Grade 4, indicating above average fundamentals. At Rs 316-330, the price-to-earning ratio is around 16 multiple based on the average weighted EPS of Rs 22.00 for the last three years, as against the average industry PE multiple of 36. There is enough scope for further appreciation.


The company operates in a highly competitive market and hence faces stiff competition from other players operating in this sector as also from the un-organized sectors. Many Indian and foreign players have entered the market both in the online and offline space. Pricing is one of the key factors that play an important role in customers’ selection of products. There are several strategies adopted by competitors to increase their market share through advertising, pricing, service, new product innovations and distribution reach amongst others. This increased competition by both traditional and new players is likely to affect margins. However, this could stand mitigated by the the brand equity and the trust it has earned over the years. The company appears well poised to face the challenges and emerge a winner. This is one of the public issues that the investors can apply and look for positive returns.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009


The unruly behavior of the MNS legislators (Goonda Raj HT 10-11-09) in the assembly during the oath taking ceremony on 09-11-09, in assaulting the SP MLA for taking oath in Hindi is a shameful act. There are many peaceful ways to express one’s views on a subject. These kinds of behavior indicate how immature one is. Earlier, the same Samajawadi party MLA had made a ridiculous demand, that the business agenda of the Assembly should be made available in Hindi. He has chosen Maharastra for his political career and the people of the state have been magnanimous enough to elect him to the Assembly from two places. Propriety demands learning/acquiring working knowledge of Marathi language even before contesting the election. He should have respected the public sentiments and taken oath in Marathi. Being an elected representative, it is beyond anyone’s understanding as to how Azmi is going to inter act with the people of his constituency. Voters should take note of the above acts of immaturity, by both the sides, while excersing their franchise in future.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009


The views expressed by Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr in the article’ Indira Gandhi was merely a politician’(DNA 03-11-09) is not correct. She had all the qualities of a very strong, great leader. Bank nationalization, Pokaran nuclear test, Garibi hatav programme, Right of ownership to the tiller, the win against Pakistan in 1971 war, are some of the feathers in her cap. She was the true leader who knew the pulse of the voters. Her strong leadership qualities when in power and out of it was hailed in India as well outside the country. Although there were some drawback in her style of functioning, it is wrong to attribute the same as lack leadership. Politics is a different ball game. One has to deal with the elected representative whether they are educated or not, whether they understands host of other things of efficient administration. Even today, it is difficult attract talented people for various (obvious) reasons for any political party. The assertion that she lacked the ability to build a team of talented people is again not correct. Contrary to the views expressed in the article, undoubtedly Indira Gandhi was one of the greatest leader India has produced and not merely a politician.

Monday, November 2, 2009


The not so formidable bowling attack of Australia defended the modest score of 250 runs on a good batting pitch. The all-round display by Shane Watson helped the Aussies to win the Mohali match. India started well, Sewag hitting the ball to all parts of the ground. As it happens most of the time, he did not lost long. Master blaster, Tendulkar, was shaping his innings well. Cricket fans were hoping that he would cross the all-important milestone of scoring 17000 runs in ODI. However, a wrong decision by the umpire (as confirmed by the television reply) adjudging him as out, to a ball which was pitched outside the leg stump, turned out be the turning point of the match. After that, India lost wickets at regular intervals and the run rate started climbing. Harbhajan Singh did his best. That was not good enough for India. He and Praveen Kumar have demonstrated in this series so far, that they have the potential to become genuine all rounders. The team management should take note this and utilize their batting potential to the maximum in the overall interest of the team India.


The patriarch of CPM, the man who holds the record, for occupying the post chief minister for highest number of years in the history of Indian democracy, is desperate to save his party, in the coming assembly by polls. Basu has sought the support of traditional Congress voters to fight the Trinamool Congress. What an irony. The man, who fought against the party his entire life, is seeking the votes of the supporters of the same party. The reason being that the LEFT gave unconditional support at the center to counter the threat of communalism. The people of the state/country are also aware that the bottleneck they created for various developmental programmes and for reforms, the UPA government wanted to implement sincerely. Moreover, for the same reason that the LEFT were routed out in the previous Lok Sabha election. Since then there is no change its programme, policies and ideology. Hence, on what basis Basu is seeking the support of Congress voters is perplexing. It appears, writing on the wall, for LEFT is very clear. As a seasoned politician, he can read very early and clearly than others can.

Sunday, November 1, 2009


First time in the history of Indian democracy, a sitting Loksabha member is to be prosecuted under the Prevention of Money Laundering, Act (PMLA). (TOI 01-11-09). The MP in question is, Madhu Koda, an independent from Jharkand. The I T department conducted nationwide raids on 60 premises belonging to him/his associates for diversion of funds to the extent of Rs800 crore during tenure as chief minister of the state. Whoever is responsible for this initiative/action against a politician should be congratulated. At least a beginning has been made to weed out corruption in politics. Politics as a profession pays you nothing. Then, why are most of our politicians crorepathis. Unless they are corrupt (barring exception) and pursue unethical ways to amass wealth this cannot happen. There are big fishes in other political parties, including the Congress, who have amassed wealth much against their known sources of income, by virtue of being in politics or being close to a leading politician. It is universal truth that most politicians spend 20-25 times more than the limit fixed by Election Commission while fighting an election. There are loopholes in the system and they easily escape being caught. Will the establishment responsible for action against Madhu Koda initiate similar action against other corrupt politicians in the country. Otherwise, one would presume that action against Madhu Koda is a political stunt ahead of assembly election in the state or he is being singled out because he does not belong to any major national/regional political party.


Aussies lackluster batting performance in Kotla ground is responsible for their second consecutive defeat against India. Ponting was surely missing the services of Gilchrist, Mathew Hayden and Andrew Symonds, the all time big, awesome, hitters in the game. These players were capable of taking any bowling attack head-on and single handedly win matches for their side. After winning the toss, Ponting elected to bat and opened the innings with Watson. Both struggled to score runs at a brisk rate. Ponting was more cautious, aware the absence of big hitters in the side. The average per over score was around four runs, until the 40th over. One expected the firework in the last ten overs. However, nothing happened. The final score of 220 odd runs was never a tough target for the strong batting line-up of India. Dhoni and Yuvraj played sensibly and India had no difficulty in reaching the target. Its good, India won the match. However, the real action was missing. Long live the phenomenal hitters.


The agro chemical and pharmaceutical company is planning to raise Rs 61.50 cr through IPO. The company proposes to issue 75, 00,000 of equity shares of Rs 10 each at a premium of Rs 82.00. The issue will open on 29-10-09 and closes on 04-11-09. ALMONDZ GLOBAL SECURITIES LIMITED are the Book Running Lead Manager.

The company is promoted by Ashok Hiremath and Dr.P.L. Tiwari.

The company under the Agrochemical segment, manufactures active ingredients, intermediates and formulations. Active ingredients are sold to crop protection formulators. Intermediates are supplied to technical grade product manufacturers. Formulations are sold in bulk quantities to companies engaged in retail marketing.

Under the Pharmaceutical segment, our Company carries out manufacturing of intermediates which are supplied to Active Pharma Ingredients manufacturers.

Objects of the Issue

1. Expansion of existing manufacturing facilities.
2. Expansion of existing Research and Development facility.
3. Meeting long-term working capital requirements.
4. General Corporate Purposes.

FINANCIALS: 08-09 07-08 06-07 (Rs in lacs)

Total Income 6,120.78 9,388.07 2,750.59

Net Profit after tax 793.52 1,072.78 342.86


• Scale of operations is very small.
• There is delay in execution of expansion capacity.
• Minimal global presence.
• Expansion project is funded entirely through equity.
• The company faces unresolved litigation, which could pose risks to its operations. Nath Biogene, a former customer, has alleged supply of spurious products by the company; which Astec has disputed.


In the price band of Rs 77-82, the offer price discounts the company’s 2008-09 earnings by 12 times, on the expanded equity.

The larger listed peers in the sector — Meghmani Organics and Sabero Organics — are available for less than 6 P/E. AVOID SUBSCRIPTION.


The party with a difference, much disciplined, development oriented and cadre based party’s image in Karnataka is in shambles because of indiscipline, infighting and most important lust for power. The state is reeling under un precedented havoc caused by the floods, the elected representatives of BJP for fighting in the streets to fulfill their personal agenda. More intriguing was, while addressing the press conference after his return from ‘Kukke subramaya’ C M Yediyurappa asserted that all his colleagues, MLAs are working overtime to help the people affected in flood affected districts. To the astonishment of viewers, this statement comes when nearly 60 dissident MLAs are locked at Hotels in Andhra Pradesh and Goa, enjoying their free/sponsored holidays. The inorganic growth of BJP in Karnataka is one of the major contributors for party’s indiscipline and dissidence. With the sole intention of winning elections, if people who do not believe in the ideology, policies and programmes are admitted to the party, the current situation is bound to happen. Although the present C M does not have much experience, he has done reasonably well in all fronts. One does not know the real demands of Reddy brothers. The M P from south Bangalore, who was once calling the shots in Karnataka’s BJP affairs is watching the entire ‘drama’ as mute spectator. The central leadership may work-out a compromise formula and solder the relationship between the warring Reddy brothers and the C M, but any such relationship will not be strong.

Thursday, October 29, 2009


The startling revelation by the one of the greatest of player of tennis, that he was using recreational drug, crystal methamphetamine, popularly known as ‘speed’ in hey days, has shocked the tennis fans across the world. More startling was, that the governing body of ATP relied on the statement of Agassi overlooking the findings of the doctor in the drug test. The ATP should strip all the titles won by Agassi, ban him for life from associating himself with tennis any capacity. No one is bigger than the game.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009


Ricky Ponting, after winning the all important toss, chose to field first on a placid, high scoring pitch in Nagpur for surprise of every one. Knowing that the services of his prime strike bowler are not available, one wonders what made Ponting to field first on an excellent batting pitch. Expect for getting the wicket of Tendulkar early, nothing went right for Assies. Indian batsmen scored runs at will. Suresh Raina and Sewag contributed runs at very good strike rate. Dhoni led the team from front and scored a match winning century. Chasing 350 odd runs by any team on any pitch is not easy. Assies lost wickets in quick session. There were no partnerships. There was need for a cameo innings from some one like M.Jhonsen. Ahead of him Ponting sent the inexperienced Voges, Shuan Marsh, knowing well the cameo innings Jhonsen is capable of. He was sent in after the fall of five wickets, with only 12-13 over remaining to do the impossible. It appears Ponting wrong judgment might have cost them the match.


For the forthcoming election in Jharkhand, scheduled for December, the Congress should choose its ally carefully. Leaders with criminal records and leaders with charges of corruption should be kept out of pre-poll alliance/any alliance. Voters are interested in good governance, stability, communal harmony and development. Jharkand which is in rich in natural resources is one of the most backward states in the country. However, the previous governments, for various reasons could not exploit this strength to the maximum, developmental activities were minimal. A strong, stable government with focus on development will take the state to greater heights. The situation is tailor made for Congress.


The RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat is right in suggesting that BJP needs either surgery or chemotherapy and they themselves should decide what they need (DNA 28-10-09). I think BJP needs both, for complete over haul and image make over. The performance of the party under the leadership of Rajnath Singh as the party president is very un impressive. The party has lost miserably in the Lok Sahha elections and its performance in the three states that went election this month is lackluster. The party’s image took a severe beating in Jaswant Singh episode. The internal bickering, indiscipline (Raje’s defiance in Rajasthan and Reddy brothers’ behavior in Karnataka, among others) makes mockery of the so called cadre based and disciplined party, a laughing stock. Rajnath Singh remarked Bhawat’s suggestion as mad. Only time will who is mad. But there is urgent need for change of the leadership at the highest level with people who are young, dynamic and has vision to attract the masses.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009


The RBI, in its credit policy review, has increased the requirement of SLR by 100 basis point to 25%. The other key rates, including CRR, REPO and reserve REPO rates kept unchanged. The RBI has rightly tightened the provisioning norms for NPAs. The reality sector which was expecting some favorable policy decision been disappointed. This kind of independent, pragmatic policy measures taken by RBI has saved the country from financial melt down as experienced by some Western countries during the last year. And it so no surprise that RBI has been hailed as one the best regulator in the world.


Appeared in DNA Mumbai on 28-10-09.

The allegation by Pakistan’s interior minister Rehman Malik that India is funding Taliban (DNA 27-10-09) is a joke. The whole world knows that the Taliban is creation of establishment in Pak to wage proxy war against India. It is continuously nurtured and funded by the successive governments of Pak. When things are going out of control, (the recent series of bomb attacks by extremists there) the Establishment has chosen the wildest improbable to blame India for existence of Taliban.


Cricket fans love Gilchrist. The way he demolishes the bowlers of his opposite side. The way he can single handedly win matches and the way he can bring victory from the jaws of defeat for his side. The gentlemanly behavior on the field. That is cricket. But his assertion in Pune that OZ is still safe for students is not correct. He has termed the incidents as generic and could happen anywhere. The problem is not generic, it is the attitude and mind set of the people. The series of racial attacks on Indian students in Australia are appalling to say, the least. The students have been attacked without any provocation. It is indication of growing frustration and non-tolerant attitude of Australians against India which is emerging as a powerful economy. Equal or number of Indian students go to USA for studies. No such problems in America. As good will ambassadors, Australian cricketers must put pressure on their government to take preventive action in this respect. Advice to Indian students – chose Australia as a lost resort for higher education, since some of the Universities there are fake and it is an unsafe destination.

Friday, October 23, 2009


Contrary to the expectations of Shiv Sena and BJP, Raj’s MNS has performed remarkably in the recently concluded assembly elections in Maharastra. MNS has made strong in roads into the Sena bastions in the cities of Mumbai, Thana, Nashik and Pune. Apart from securing 13 seats they came second and third in many constituencies. Again this is a very credible performance for a three year old party. Raj Thackeray has the knack of connecting himself with the voters, particularly the young ones who matter most in the elections. His party promises to solve the problem related to migration, slum rehabilitation, power shortage, encroachment and host of other civic problems. MNS appears to be sincere in finding solutions to the above perennial problems. MNS is likely to be a major player in Maharastra politics in the years to come. Considering the progress they have achieved in a very short period, they are likely to garner lion’s share of seats in the Municipal/Civic elections in the above cities, as and when election are held. And it will not be a surprise if they emerge as a major opposition party/power player in the 2014 assembly elections.



Den networks limited is entering the capital market with public issue of 20,000,000 equity shares of Rs10 each in the price band of Rs 195-205. The company intends to raise around Rs 400 crores from the issue. The issue is slated to open on 28-10-09 and closes on 30-10-09. Deutsche Equities India and Antique Capital markets are the BRLMs.

The company is promoted by Sameer Manchanda and Lucid systems pvt. Limited.
The funds raised will be utilized for company’s cable television and infrastructure services, for acquisition of content and broad casting rights and for general purposes including part repayment of existing loans. The project has not been appraised by any bank or financial institution.

The company’s revenue growth heavily dependent on conversion of analog cable subscribers to become digital cable subscribers, in the highly competitive Television distribution industry. Also the company has limited experience in Broad band cable internet services, the other segment which it is interested.

The company has no track record of profitability, dividend payment. It has reported losses for the years 2008 and 2009 and had negative cash flows. The company also is heavily indebted.The average cost of acquisition of shares by promoters - Lucid systms and Sameer Manchanda is Rs 0.40 and Rs 8.80 respectively.

Neither the company’s past track record nor future business prospects justifies the very high premium on shares.



Vinod Kambli has lost the assembly election from Vikhroli, Mumbai. He has lost his deposit too. Unlike his peers N S Siddhu, Mohd. Azaruddin, KAMBLI chose a wrong party to make his political debut. Very few know his party –Lok Bharati.Party and symbol are most important in an election. He is not that popular like SHARUKH KHAN, AMITAB OR SACHIN TENDULKAR to contest on any party ticket and get elected. Politics is a long term game. If he is serious about his chosen line, he should connect himself with the voters of his constituency and work sincerely in finding solutions to the chronic problems faced by the citizens of the constituency. He should try to associate with a national or a strong local party and try to build his political career slowly.

Thursday, October 22, 2009


While expressing my views on Tiger Tales (DNA 01-10-09)I had predicted that the Congress-NCP will come back to power on TINA factor and MNS will emerge even stronger. The prediction has come true. The views expressed on 01-10-09 is hereby re-published.

Thursday, October 1, 2009
Interesting analysis of forthcoming assembly election of Maharstra by R.Jaganathan. (DNA Tiger Tales - 01-10-09) Although the performance of the DF government is lack luster, these combinations, again may come back to power on TINA factor. The BJP in the state is rudderless, Shiv Sena is steadily losing grounds because of split and infighting. The so called Third Front is a non starter. The MNS is making strong in roads into erstwhile Sena bastons. The Center’s rural unemployment guarantee scheme, farmers’ loan waiver and other initiatives taken in the field of education, rural health services will fetch substantial votes to Congress-NCP combine. The young voters who constitute nearly 70% of the total voters are interested youth leadership. Here, the Congress (Rahul Gandhi) and MNS has the advantage compared to the other parties. In the changed scenario the MNS will emerge stronger and even may play the role of king maker in the unlikely event of a hung assembly.
Posted by K A PRASANNA at 8:28 AM



The reaction of Abbas Naqvi, senior leader of BJP to the out come of results of assembly results of the three states terming EVMs as electronic victory machines for Congress is unfortunate. It appears that statement has come out of sheer frustration. The BJP, as expected had fared very badly in the election because of loss of image at the national level, infighting and lack of leadership at state level. Instead of accepting the defeat gracefully and introspect on the same our BJP leader has chosen the blame the EVMs.Modi in Gujarat, Chauvan in M P and B S Yediyurappa in Karnataka all rode back to power and the same EVMs were used in those elections also. Why Naqvi did not raised this issue at that time. People of this country are not that fools to buy his story.
It is time for BJP to re-think on its programme, policies, ideology and strategy if it wants stay as an alternative to the Congress party.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009


The fighting between Ambani brothers has been termed by the country’s apex court as countries at war. Here is a poser to Ambanis – Had there been no split in the family, whether Mukesh’s RIL still had taken the same decision of increasing the gas price from $ 2.34 per mmbtu to $ 4.20 per mmbtu for supply of gas to RNRL and whether Anil would have opposed the move as he has done now. The answer to both, probably – no. Then what is that they are fighting. Their respective counsels should enlighten the public and the share holders of the above companies in this regard.


The detention of Parvez Rasool, cricketer from J and K by Bengaluru city police has made out as over-zealousness and incompetence. (DNA 21-10-09 Nano edit - Not cricket at all) The track records of Bengaluru police in nabbing terrorists are excellent. The integrity, sincerity and efficiency of the police force, particularly the present police commissioner Shankar Bidri can not be questioned. It happened because of faulty functioning of the machine or just human failure. There are thousands and thousands of Kashmiris living in the city of Bengaluru and they are not subjected to this kind of detention. Security is a serious issue, and such thing happens in routine check –up and it can happen to any one. One should not read too much into it and blame the entire force as incompetent.


The crime branch of Mumbai police should be congratulated for nabbing M Y Kadam and D Tulaskar who are accused of duping more than 2000 investors of Rs 6 crore plus. ( Duo dupes 2000 investors DNA 21-10-09). Public also should be careful in making investment in ventures that offers very high returns. There are no legally sustainable business models where one can double his investment in just 30 days. If there is one, the promoters will not offer that business model to others. They themselves will invest all the money they can and expand/improve their wealth. Public should check the credentials of such promoters before investing. The crime branch should keep an eye the fraudsters who regularly advertise in leading news papers of such schemes. Prevention is better than the cure. They may take assistance from retired Police/CBI/Bank officials/others to strengthen their net work.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009


The HRD minister’s proposal to raise the eligibility bar for the Joint Entrance Examination (JEE) is a move in the right direction. (DNA 20-10-09). The students with only aim of securing a better rank in the entrance examinations are neglecting the regular studies and concentrating more on coaching classes. Through this mad coaching class culture students are more interested in JEE ranking than acquiring knowledge in the chosen subjects, since the syllabus of the coaching classes are designed in that manner. More over, only the students from affluent families are benefited from this culture, because of their ability to pay, to the disadvantage of the students from poor/middle class back ground. This proposal to some extent put an end to that dis parity. It is also alleged that some students bunk the classes for the whole year and camp in the so called Mecca of coaching classes (Kota in Rajasthan etc). The get proxy attendance in connivance with school management. The HRD ministry should also look in to this matter, since this gives some students un due advantage in the JEE.

Sunday, October 18, 2009


In the article’ No election is an echo of the past’ by M J Akbar,(TOI 18-10-09)that the vote share of ‘others’ shall be around 26%, based on the voting pattern in the general election in May -09,adding Republicans share of votes to ‘others’ kitty, since they are out NCP-Congress alliance,may be wrong. Assembly elections are fought on different issues and many local factors play a major role in election of candidates. The Madhu Limaye theory that political party began to convert votes into seats at geometrical progression only after its base crosses 23% share does not hold good others (Independents and smaller parties). According to that theory others should get around 75 seats. Most un likely. Percentage votes polled, directly does convert into seats even for major political parties.

Friday, October 16, 2009


The news of Ambani brothers taking salary cut appears in all leading dailies as head line. (Mukesh Ambani takes Rs 29cr salary cut - DNA 16-10-09). Does it makes any difference to their life style nor contributes more to the exchequer? It does not. Then what is the big deal that is making the head lines. Apart from salary income, they get commission on company’s profit, income from investment made in various projects. More over all their expense are taken care by flagship companies by virtue of them being CEOs. Then what is that they are sacrifing to show solidarity with the people who are affected by draught. If they are really concerned, they should contribute a few hundred crores of their personal wealth to PM relief fund.

Thursday, October 15, 2009


The attacks on Dalits who were trying to enter a temple in Nagapattinam district by non-dalits calls for severest punishment as per law. (TOI 15-10-09) The act is barbaric and un-civilized. These kinds of incidents make dalits to take extreme steps like conversions and moving towards Maoism as they are rejected by the people of their own religion. The TN government should book cases against the accused. The temples all over the state should instructed for allowing dalits to enter the same without any discriminations and fear. We should try to build a casteless society and not caste conflict society. The Center and the State government should enact law making it mandatory for temple management to have at least two dalits as priests in every temple. Tough call. But urgently required.


The AP health minister and Greater Hyderabad Congress Committee president Danam Nagender’s announcement that at least 30 statue of YSR will be installed in Greater Hyderabad area is waste of public money. (TOI 15-10-09). Congress party accuses Mayavati for trying to install memorials of late Kanshiram, the BSP symbol and statue of Mayavati herself in UP and the matter is before the Supreme Court. In A P the same funds can be better utilized for building schools and hospitals in the same locality. Congress high command should interfere in the matter and should stop these acts of sycophancy.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009


The protest by China against Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh recent visit to Arunachal Pradesh is un warranted. (China protests against PM’s Arunachal visit DNA 14-10-09). Arunachal Pradesh is integral part of India and China is making un-necessary provocation in this regard. India is not Tibet to be bullied around. Instead of raking this kind un-wanted issue, China should try to further improve the relationship with India based on trust. China should not spoil the relationship built over so many years in its own interest lest the bilateral trade and commerce will work against to its dis-advantage. And India will have to re look at its foreign policy towards China.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009










The special auditors appointed by DOT to look into the alleged evasion of licence fees and inflation of revenue and other irregularities have pointed out the glaring mistakes committed by the country’s number one telecom player. (DNA money 13-10-09). Anil Ambani is on war path with Reliance industries limited for alleged breach of contract, bad corporate governance and greediness. As expected the response from Rcom was, we are yet to receive the report and there are no irregularities or fudging of accounts. There can not be smoke without fire. And if probed further, they may come with the explanation that they did it for the benefit of the share holders. For some, corporate governance is simply on paper or talking point.

Sunday, October 11, 2009



The story of world’s biggest retailer Walmart is very interesting. (India Forbes -Walmart passage to India Oct 23 -09). However, Walmart has had very little or no success out side the US. The regulatory support that exists in US is non-existent out side the US for various political and economical reasons. The infrastructure, the efficient supply chain management, the logistic support that it has built over the decades in US and most importantly the mad consumerism in US has largely contributed to the success story. Again these are non-existent in our country. The back bone of Indian retail business is credit. Being a poor cum developing economy, the poor and the middle class contributes significantly to the retail business volume. The purchasing power of consumers in this segment is very low and limited. Hence, credit plays a major role in volume business. The local kirana stores have advantage over the big players as they offer credit to selected customers. And similarly the kirana stores enjoy credit facilities from wholesalers and distributors. The easy accessibility to kirana stores is another plus point compared to the players like Walmart which are normally located in out skirts of the cities where in the people residing in that particular area can access such sores making it difficult to reach more consumers. Walmart is a volume player. The kind of regulation, the infrastructure, the logistics and the purchasing power the urban poor and middle class have in India makes the road ahead for Walmart a difficult one.

Thursday, October 8, 2009


The brutal killing of Jarkhand Police inspector Francis Induwar by Maoists deserves condemnation by all. (Brute Maoists invite early action DNA 08-10-09).If the Maoists are serious about finding solutions to the problems that are faced by the tribals through out the country, they should join the mainstream politics and put forth their ideology and solution they have to solve perennial problems instead of fighting like a coward. These cowardly acts will not help any way in mitigating the problems. Maoists/Naxalites should fight for their causes through peace full means. They will not be able to achieve even one percent of their goal with these kinds of heinous acts even if they fight for one thousand years. LTTE, the most dreaded and feared organization could not achieve anything for its Tamil population by violent means in a tiny country like Srilankha. There are lessons to be learnt from the collapse of LTTE in Srilankha. The present day government at the Center and at state level has shown considerable interest in finding peaceful solutions that are engulfed the tribals in the country. It is only through negotiation the problems can be solved to the satisfaction of both the sides. It is not too late for Maoists to come and join the mainstream and have talks with the respective governments.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009



The treatment meted out to P T Usha, the greatest athletes of our time, at Bhopal is national shame. (DNA I was forced to beg 07-10-09). The officials promptly bruised the issue as a result of a ‘lack of communication’. It is not the lack communication it is the lack of understanding and commitment towards sports administration. P T Usha’s contribution to sports is no less than that of top cricketers of that time. However, in our country only the cricket gets more attention than it deserves and other sports are neglected. It is time that the sports administrators change their attitude and administrator the sports in a professional way as done in most developed countries. This kind of incidents dampens the spirit of young athletes for whom P T Usha is iconic personality. Our sprint queen and golden girl of yester year deserve to be congratulated for exposing the shabby and careless attitude of sports administrators. Long live cricket.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009


The on going tussle between the country’s apex court and UP government over the construction of memorials amounting to Rs 2600.00 crores and violation of apex court order by Ms Mayavati makes mockery of our legal and political system. Mayavati who has seen many ups and downs in her political career is aware that power is not permanent and only good the governance brings her back to power and not memorials. The same amount could have been better utilized for various developmental projects in one the country’ biggest and poorest state. And she should not tag dalit card to every thing.


The Issue : INDIA BULLS POWER LIMITED proposes to issue 33,98,00,000 shares of Rs 10/ each with a green shoe option of 5,09,00,000 aggregating to 39,07,00,000 in the price band of Rs 40 -45 . The company intends to garner around Rs 1700 cores from the issue. The issue is slated to open on 12-10 -09.

Promoters: The project is promoted by IBREL. Foreign investors FIM limited and LMN India internet ventures limited hold17.9 and 10.7 percent respectively.

The project: To set up power generating units with a total capacity of 6600 MW in different states. Although 16 Banks /institutions have committed funds to the extent of Rs 6,525.00 crores for the project, no Bank or Institution has independently appraised the project.

Industry/Competition: Highly competitive capital intensive industry. The promoters have no experience in the power generation business.

Other points to note: The Company is yet to obtain some clearances. For Chattisgarh project the land is yet to be acquired. First unit to be commissioned in June 2012. Heavily indebted company. The promoters have acquired 118, 50, 00,000 shares at an average cost of Rs 5/.

IPO grading: The rating agency CRISIL has assigned Grade 3 indicating average fundamentals.

The company has no business track record. Hence share premium of Rs30-35/ is not justified.

Recommendations: Considering the inexperience of the promoters, long gestation period and heavy indebtedness, investors may avoid subscription.

Monday, October 5, 2009


The declared assets our politicians has shown substantial growth in 2009 compared to their assets in 2004. (Pawar lead charge in political family wealth DNA 05-10-09). It makes our business men and industrialists ponder over their ability to create and manage wealth. The assets of our politicians have shown substantial growth in spite of recession in the economy, needs to be specially appreciated. Our fund managers should take lessons from our politicians how to increase the wealth irrespective of GDP growth and market conditions. Our politicians declared aim is to work for the poor, down trodden, weaker and other un fortunate sections of the society. However our poor voters continues to be at what they were many years ago, where as their netas have become the wealthiest and still they proclaim that their entire life is dedicated for the up- liftment of the poorest of the poor. Long live our democracy and our politicians.

Friday, October 2, 2009


The article by K V Ramana that Jaganmohan might have missed the C M bus has no reasoning. You will miss the bus only if you are at the bus stop. Jagan was never at the bus stop. Neither has he had the proven track record nor the experience to occupy the highest post. Some loyalists and sycophants wanted him to be the C M to implement their hidden agenda through an inexperienced person. Being a CM’s son does not mean, that you will be made CM on some happenings. The death of YSR has crated a vacuum in the state and the Congress high command has rightly chosen the experienced Rosaiah to the CM’ post. Jagan is still young and should work for the party and prove his mettle before aspiring for the coveted post.


The Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST) move to name Bus stops to the highest bidder is an unwise move. (DNA 02-10-09) The roads, parks and other places, which frequently used by the public are to named with famous personalities who have scarified/contributed immensely to the society in their chosen field in recognition of their contribution. Any person who has ill gotten money will bid for the bus stops to be named after him/her and get un deserved recognition/attention. These persons even may try to shore up their credibility boasting that the BEST has named bus stops after them and take un due advantage in the society. The money BEST is expecting from such project is mere Rs 100 crore which is pittance compared to the annual revenue generated by the BEST. The move should be abandoned as it un wise.

Thursday, October 1, 2009


Interesting analysis of forthcoming assembly election of Maharstra by R.Jaganathan. (DNA Tiger Tales - 01-10-09) Although the performance of the DF government is lack luster, these combinations, again may come back to power on TINA factor. The BJP in the state is rudderless, Shiv Sena is steadily losing grounds because of split and infighting. The so called Third Front is a non starter. The MNS is making strong in roads into erstwhile Sena bastons. The Center’s rural unemployment guarantee scheme, farmers’ loan waiver and other initiatives taken in the field of education, rural health services will fetch substantial votes to Congress-NCP combine. The young voters who constitute nearly 70% of the total voters are interested youth leadership. Here, the Congress (Rahul Gandhi) and MNS has the advantage compared to the other parties. In the changed scenario the MNS will emerge stronger and even may play the role of king maker in the unlikely event of a hung assembly.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009


In the editorial ‘Air pocket again’ (DNA 30-09-09) the reason for the present day status of our premier air line has been rightly analyzed. Decades of mis/inefficient management of the airline has brought the Maharaja to what it is today. Ill-advised merger, unplanned expansion and bad financial management have put the Air India in ICU and not the competition. SBI and other public sector banks have set an excellent example that in spite of severe competition from new generation private banks and aggressive foreign banks, they can do business better than the competitors, if you know how to manage. The government should revamp the board and undertake a major surgery on its internal functioning. The employees in their own interest should cooperate with the management and agree for some sacrifice during this turbulent period, until such time the Maharaja starts making profit. When it comes to taking the commuters for a ride, the private airlines are no better, as we have witnessed recently. If the only public sector player in the aviation business ceases to be the player, in the very first day itself the private airlines will form a cartel and exploit the situation to the disadvantages to the commuters.


The Center’s mega plan of making India slum-free country in the next five years is appears to be a very toll order. (DNA 30-09-09). This Herculean task requires sincere efforts by both the Center and the respective governments. The Center should enact laws in such a way, that only the government agencies be it either Central or State are the only permitted nodal agency for such rehabilitation schemes and no builder/middlemen should be entrusted with such assignments as is being practiced by some state governments in the country. In the name of slum development these builders make lot of money for themselves. Government should also build schools and hospitals in the same locality for the benefit of the local population including the rehabilitee slum dwellers.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009


The news, that ICICI bank will block all cards issued by it to a customer if he/she defaults on any one of them appears to be very harsh and un-relationship banking. (TOI 29-09-09) The bank official has quoted the practice in the west, particularly in United States. The procedures followed in US for issuing credit cards are different from what the card issuers follow here. What is good for US is not necessarily good for India. There fore ICICI BANK should go to the root of the problem. Credit card defaults are directly proportionate to the misplaced aggressiveness the issuers adopt while issuing cards to its customers. Card defaults are more with banks like ICICI and other foreign banks that are aggressive and interested in growth percentage of card business. These banks issues cards through third party arrangements, the so called DSAs. The DSAs are interested in generating revenue for themselves. To shore up the numbers they some time suppress the vital credit information/ submit fudged documents to the card issuing banks. The end result is undeserving getting the card and misusing the same. In a country like ours there are occasions even the highest rated customer of the bank may defer/delay/default payment for reasons beyond his control. Generalising the rules for one and all will affect the credibility and reliability of the bank. ICICI bank, in spite of in the business for very long time has not learnt that banking is not only about money but it is also on how you manage the relationship with the customers. It is too not late to withdraw the draconian guidelines.

Monday, September 28, 2009



R. jaganathan views on ‘Why India may get lucky once again’ was excellent. (DNA 28-09-09).However certain points are overemphasized. The markets movements are although an indicator of the health of the economy and confident booster for potential investors - both local and foreign, the stock indices are some times misleading and confusing. We have seen how one Harshad or Ketan can take the markets to dizzy heights by pure manipulation. Because of slow down in US and European economies, FIIs may prefer to invest in the emerging economies like India, China and Brazil. But, for a country like ours too much FII investments in stock market is fraught with danger. Our stock market /small investors are not matured enough. When FIIs start investing heavily in markets here the indices goes over the roof, the small investors being caught unaware. During the buoyancy without understanding the dynamics of the markets they make investments and soon they realize that they have entered the market at the wrong time because the so called FIIs who were responsible for the indices to hit the highest point, start withdrawing/selling their investments, once their desired percentage of return on investments are achieved leaving the small investors in the lurch. (FIIs are not charitable institutions who help small investors to lead a comfortable life). Once the small investors’ confidence is shattered no market will hold for long time. And we will be back to square one.